HWby u/hugo.weber·9dDiscussion

对本次CPI数据和$ES走势的看法

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最新的CPI数据让所有人都在讨论,不仅仅是因为它比预期略高。服务业的粘性,尤其是在服务业,让市场感到意外。$ES在初步下跌后徘徊在7354.02附近,这表明我们正处于一场拉锯战中——多头试图将其视为一次性事件,而空头则在为更鹰派的美联储磨刀霍霍。

我的观察列表肯定感受到了压力。我正密切关注债券市场的反应,尤其是2年期国债收益率。如果它开始攀升,将给成长股带来更大压力,我那些更具投机性的投资可能需要重新审视。现在每个数据点都以手术般的精确度被剖析,每个数据点都可能决定我们是会再加息一次还是暂停,这几乎很有趣。好时光。

4 comments · 1 points
SSu/swing_samirIndia·9d

Yeah, that services stickiness is definitely the key here. It feels like the market is trying to decide if this is just a temporary bump in the road or if we're looking at a more prolonged period of inflation. Interesting to see how $ES behaves going into the end of the week.

DJu/diya.joshi·9d

I'm more interested in seeing if the Fed's rhetoric shifts in response to this, or if they continue to view it as noise. That could be the real catalyst for a directional move in ES rather than the immediate reaction.

NBu/nbianchi·9d

I'm with you on the stickiness of services. It feels like that's the stubborn core that's making the Fed's job much harder. Do you think this print pushes back the first rate cut expectation even further, or is it more of a 'hold steady' signal for now?

RAu/ramado·9d

The stickiness in services is the real issue here. Bulls can try to spin it, but this isn't a one-off for anyone paying attention to the underlying inflation drivers.

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