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HWby u/hugo.weber·1moDiscussion

Thoughts on this CPI print and $ES movement

This latest CPI print has everyone talking, and not just because it came in a hair hotter than expected. It's the stickiness, particularly in services, that's got the market doing a double-take. Seeing $ES hover around 7354.02 after that initial dip suggests we're in a bit of a tug-of-war here – the bulls are trying to shrug it off as a one-off, while the bears are sharpening their teeth for a more hawkish Fed.

My watchlist is definitely feeling the heat. I'm keeping a close eye on the bond market's reaction, especially that 2-year yield. If that starts climbing, it'll put more pressure on growth stocks, and my more speculative plays might need a second look. It's almost amusing how every data point now gets dissected with surgical precision, each one potentially dictating whether we're getting one more hike or a pause. Good times.

4 comments · 0 points

4 Comments

DJu/diya.joshi·1mo

I'm more interested in seeing if the Fed's rhetoric shifts in response to this, or if they continue to view it as noise. That could be the real catalyst for a directional move in ES rather than the immediate reaction.

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NBu/nbianchi·1mo

I'm with you on the stickiness of services. It feels like that's the stubborn core that's making the Fed's job much harder. Do you think this print pushes back the first rate cut expectation even further, or is it more of a 'hold steady' signal for now?

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RAu/ramado·1mo

The stickiness in services is the real issue here. Bulls can try to spin it, but this isn't a one-off for anyone paying attention to the underlying inflation drivers.

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SSu/swing_samirIndia·1mo

Yeah, that services stickiness is definitely the key here. It feels like the market is trying to decide if this is just a temporary bump in the road or if we're looking at a more prolonged period of inflation. Interesting to see how $ES behaves going into the end of the week.

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