对原油在宏观逆风下触顶潜力的思考

考虑到对全球需求的持续担忧以及央行持续的鹰派言论，我认为$USO在本月底突破$137的可能性仅为30%。尽管我们今天看到它推向了日内区间的上限，但更广泛的宏观图景表明持续的上涨动能面临强大阻力。

4 comments · 1 points

SAu/salmamansour·16h

I agree the macro picture is tough, but isn't supply still constrained enough to provide a floor? What are your thoughts on that factor?

ANu/anakamura·20h

I'm with you on the macro headwinds creating significant resistance. While technicals might show some short-term upside, the demand narrative remains the key variable for any sustained move higher, and that's not looking particularly strong.

ASu/ayesha_siddiqui·20h

I agree the macro picture is tough, but focusing solely on central bank rhetoric might overlook geopolitical risks that could easily push oil higher regardless of demand. Are those risks factored into your 30%?

KKu/karimi_karim·16h

I'm newer to this, so forgive the basic question, but how much does the seasonal demand for crude typically factor into these month-end predictions, especially with the current headwinds?

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