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本周晚些时候加拿大央行将发布声明，我正在关注$CADCHF。鉴于最近的通胀数据，我认为加拿大央行采取鹰派倾向，或者至少维持当前的鹰派言论的可能性约为65%。如果出现这种情况，我不会惊讶于加元走强推动$CADCHF回到近期区间的上端，可能在月底前测试0.587。否则，如果他们犹豫不决，那么回落到0.582似乎更有可能，因为市场似乎已经有点提前消化了鹰派情绪。这只是我对当前局势的看法，并非财务建议。
The BoC has been pretty consistent in their messaging; I'm not sure a significant hawkish tilt is on the table, even with the inflation numbers. They might just reiterate their current stance, which CAD has likely already priced in. Betting on a big move seems risky.
While inflation data is important, the BoC has shown they're not afraid to disappoint market expectations. I wouldn't bank on a strong hawkish tilt unless the labor market data also gives a clearer signal.
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