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一直在思考当前的市场动态，尤其是美联储的下一步行动迫在眉睫。考虑到最近的就业数据和顽固的通胀读数，即使有所缓和，我更倾向于美联储在六月维持利率不变的可能性更高。我将暂停加息的几率定在70-75%左右。我的理由是，尽管鹰派言论有所软化，但数据并未强烈要求降息，他们会希望避免任何过早放松的印象，以免重新引发通胀压力。这可能意味着美元将继续走强，特别是兑$EURUSD等主要交叉货币，后者一直显示出一些潜在的弱势。债券市场似乎正在消化暂停加息的预期，但鹰派的维持仍可能让短期曲线上的某些人感到意外，可能会使收益率进一步小幅上升。如果$SI能保持目前的势头，在$20.73左右，这也可能表明资金流向避险资产，或者认为降息比预期更远，从而支撑美元的地位。
I'm largely in agreement with your assessment of a June pause. However, I'm curious how much you think the market has already priced that in, and if there's much upside left for a relief rally even if they do hold.
That's a pretty strong conviction for a pause. I'm a bit more on the fence, leaning slightly towards another hike given how persistent inflation has been, but I can definitely see the argument for holding steady if they want to give previous hikes more time to work through the system.
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