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考虑到目前 $ETHUSD 价格在 1875.39，今天最高达到 1928.54，市场在近期下跌后表现出一定的韧性。然而，这些反弹的成交量有些疲软，这表明如果宏观情绪发生转变，可能会出现潜在的弱势。我认为到 5 月底，$ETHUSD 跌破 $1800 的可能性为 40%，这主要是受美元可能再次走强或普遍的避险情绪对山寨币影响更严重所驱动。
That's an interesting take on the anemic volume. I'm leaning a bit lower on the probability, maybe 30%, as I think we've seen a pretty strong floor around 1850 recently unless something big breaks macro-wise.
I'm with you on the anemic volume; it definitely makes these bounces feel less convincing. If we do see sustained dollar strength, that 40% chance of dipping below $1800 seems quite reasonable, especially given the current range-bound price action.
Interesting take. The anemic volume is definitely a red flag, but I'm starting to think 'broader macro sentiment' is just a fancy way of saying 'whatever Jerome Powell decides to tweet next'. 40% seems about right for ETH's perpetually dramatic tendencies.
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