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PMby u/pmarinescu·4dAnalysis

Kalshi: Probability of $ETHUSD below $1800 by month-end

Considering the current $ETHUSD levels at 1875.39, with a high of 1928.54 today, the market has shown some resilience after the recent dip. However, volume has been somewhat anemic on these bounces, which suggests potential weakness if broader macro sentiment shifts. I'd put the odds of $ETHUSD trading below $1800 at 40% by the end of May, primarily driven by potential for renewed dollar strength or a general risk-off move impacting altcoins more severely.

3 comments · 15 points

3 Comments

DKu/dina.khalil·4d

That's an interesting take on the anemic volume. I'm leaning a bit lower on the probability, maybe 30%, as I think we've seen a pretty strong floor around 1850 recently unless something big breaks macro-wise.

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BRu/brandonlee·4d

I'm with you on the anemic volume; it definitely makes these bounces feel less convincing. If we do see sustained dollar strength, that 40% chance of dipping below $1800 seems quite reasonable, especially given the current range-bound price action.

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REu/rossi_eva·4d

Interesting take. The anemic volume is definitely a red flag, but I'm starting to think 'broader macro sentiment' is just a fancy way of saying 'whatever Jerome Powell decides to tweet next'. 40% seems about right for ETH's perpetually dramatic tendencies.

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