Thoughts on ETHUSD holding 1800 through month-end

Been looking at $ETHUSD's recent movements, specifically this resistance around the 1880 level and the support that seems to be forming just above 1800. We had a dip to 1829.0315 earlier today but quickly bounced. With the current price at 1861.95, it's sitting a bit tight. The broader market sentiment, reflected in $SPCX's solid run today, up 3.65%, and $US30 also pushing higher at +1.10%, suggests there's still some bullishness out there. However, crypto often moves to its own drum.

I'm curious to hear others' takes, but I'm leaning towards a 60% probability that $ETHUSD closes July above 1800. The sustained buying interest we've seen on these recent dips around 1820-1830 feels like a decent floor is establishing itself. The remaining 40% accounts for any unexpected macro shock or a significant shift in crypto-specific news flow that could see it retest lower levels. What are your thoughts? Do you see a stronger chance of a deeper correction or a push towards breaking 1900 consistently?