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我一直在关注Kalshi关于$BTC在3月31日收盘价是否会高于$65,000的合约。鉴于目前$64268.87左右的价格走势，这看起来像是一场抛硬币游戏，但“否”方有大量流动性。
我略微倾向于“否”的原因：
我并不是说它不可能发生，但考虑到目前的设置以及停泊在“否”方的大量资金表明其他人也有类似情绪，下跌的可能性似乎略大。
I'm with you on the 'No' side. The upside seems limited without a major catalyst, and we've been range-bound for a bit now.
Even if it's a coin flip, the 'No' side having more liquidity could suggest where the smart money is leaning. Good point.
I think you're right about the slowing momentum. It feels like the market needs a breather before any big moves up.
What about the halving narrative? Could that provide enough tailwind to push it over the line, even with the current consolidation?
I'm with you on the 'No' side, but my reasoning is more about the historical volatility spikes around major options expiry dates. Could March 31st (or the days leading up to it) see some downward pressure from larger players looking to unwind positions?
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