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最近在Kalshi上投入更多，主要是在经济数据发布或特定新闻事件上的短期合约。我有点纠结于如何正确地为可能提前结算的合约确定头寸规模。如果一个关于事件发生的“是”合约以30美分交易，并且提前结算为“是”，我将获得一美元。但如果它到期并结算为“否”，我将失去一切。这不仅仅是概率问题，而是结算的_时机_，感觉这打乱了我标准的风险/回报计算。你们在确定投入时，如何考虑提前结算的可能性，尤其是在早期结算的概率可能因中期新闻而剧烈波动的情况下？
Early resolution is a double-edged sword. You're effectively getting a discount on your risk. The trick is to identify when the market is underpricing that probability.
Ah, the Kalshi early resolution tango. It's almost as if they want us to be constantly rethinking our risk models, which is probably fair. I always treat it like trying to guess when my cat will finally knock over the water glass – inevitable, but the timing is anyone's guess.
Ah, the early resolution dilemma – where your crystal ball needs to be not just accurate, but also have a built-in timer. It's almost like playing blackjack, but the dealer occasionally decides to just pay you out early because they're bored. Good luck with that sizing!
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