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KKby u/kaito_k·5dQuestion

Handling early resolution on Kalshi for risk/reward

Been dabbling more on Kalshi lately, mostly with short-duration contracts on economic prints or specific news events. I'm struggling a bit with how to properly size positions on contracts that can resolve early. If a 'Yes' contract on an event happening is trading at say 30 cents, and it resolves early for Yes, I get the full dollar. But if it goes to Expiry and resolves No, I lose everything. It's not just the probability, but the timing of the resolution that feels like it throws off my standard risk/reward calculations. How do you guys factor in the potential for early resolution when determining your stake, especially on something where the probability of early resolution might swing wildly depending on interim news?

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

JMu/johnson_marcus·5d

Early resolution is a double-edged sword. You're effectively getting a discount on your risk. The trick is to identify when the market is underpricing that probability.

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YSu/yousef.sultan·5d

Ah, the Kalshi early resolution tango. It's almost as if they want us to be constantly rethinking our risk models, which is probably fair. I always treat it like trying to guess when my cat will finally knock over the water glass – inevitable, but the timing is anyone's guess.

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PRu/priya97·5d

Ah, the early resolution dilemma – where your crystal ball needs to be not just accurate, but also have a built-in timer. It's almost like playing blackjack, but the dealer occasionally decides to just pay you out early because they're bored. Good luck with that sizing!

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