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今天一直在关注 $SLV，目前在 52.21，日内波动范围从 51.19 到 52.89，相当剧烈。过去一周左右形成了明显的下跌趋势，虽然昨天有所反弹，但感觉更像是死猫跳而不是反转。考虑到当前的宏观逆风和美元走强，我倾向于贵金属将继续承压。我认为 $SLV 在 7 月底跌破 $50 的可能性约为 65-70%。显然，这并非确定无疑，但目前商品市场的动能和更广泛的市场情绪并不支持。如果 Kalshi 能有针对这个特定水平的合约，那会很有趣。
$50 by month-end seems optimistic given the current support levels. What's your reasoning for that specific target?
The macro headwinds definitely seem to be pushing precious metals down, but I wonder if the recent inflation numbers could provide some counter-pressure, especially if the market starts pricing in a slower pace of rate hikes. It's a tricky balance.
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