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$SLV hitting $50 by month-end - Kalshi idea
Been watching $SLV today, currently at 52.21, and the daily range has been pretty wild from 51.19 to 52.89. There's been a clear downtrend forming over the last week or so, and while we had a bit of a bounce yesterday, it feels more like a dead cat than a reversal. Given the current macro headwinds and the dollar strength, I'm leaning towards continued pressure on precious metals. I'd put the odds of $SLV breaking below $50 by the end of July at around 65-70%. It’s not a certainty, obviously, but the momentum and broader market sentiment for commodities just isn't there right now. Would be interesting to see a Kalshi contract on that specific level.
2 comments · 4 points
The macro headwinds definitely seem to be pushing precious metals down, but I wonder if the recent inflation numbers could provide some counter-pressure, especially if the market starts pricing in a slower pace of rate hikes. It's a tricky balance.