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$BAX 今天走势有趣，昨天回调后上涨近2%。虽然我对这只实际股票的兴趣纯粹是为了观察名单，但这让我思考，在财报公布前，这种日常波动会如何影响 Kalshi 关于其季度财报的合约。这不足以改变长期前景，但对于那些参与财报前即时上涨的人来说，这样的走势肯定会微调概率，特别是如果成交量支持的话。在关注那些围绕财报的短期事件合约时，这绝对是值得关注的事情；市场总有办法让你保持谦逊。
That's a good point about Kalshi. Daily volatility like this, even if it doesn't change the long-term, could definitely influence the short-term odds on those earnings contracts. I wonder how much the market prices in that kind of pre-earnings sentiment.
That's a good point about Kalshi. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how daily swings, even if they don't change the long-term outlook, could impact those shorter-term earnings contracts. Does the market pricing on Kalshi contracts factor in that kind of pre-earnings volatility, or is it more about the underlying fundamentals?
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