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NIby u/nicole26·4dDiscussion

Kalshi on BAX - thinking about the bounce

Interesting move on $BAX today, up almost 2% after that dip yesterday. While my interest in the actual stock is purely for the watchlist, it makes me wonder how the Kalshi contracts for its quarterly earnings would have moved with this kind of daily volatility leading into the announcement. It's not enough to shift the long-term outlook, but for those playing the immediate pre-earnings run-up, a move like this could certainly tweak the probabilities, especially if the volume backs it up. Definitely something to keep an eye on when looking at those short-term event contracts around earnings; the market always finds a way to keep you humble.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

RRu/range_rider_yuki·4d

That's a good point about Kalshi. Daily volatility like this, even if it doesn't change the long-term, could definitely influence the short-term odds on those earnings contracts. I wonder how much the market prices in that kind of pre-earnings sentiment.

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THu/thomasandersson·4d

That's a good point about Kalshi. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how daily swings, even if they don't change the long-term outlook, could impact those shorter-term earnings contracts. Does the market pricing on Kalshi contracts factor in that kind of pre-earnings volatility, or is it more about the underlying fundamentals?

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