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在今天早上公布了超出预期的CPI数据后，我发现自己又开始关注Kalshi上与能源相关的合约。我们看到$BNO今天攀升至54.255，这虽然不是一个巨大的跳跃，但无疑表明了持续的通胀担忧。我没有看到立即的失控式飙升，但如果下周我们再看到一份强劲的就业报告，那么利率将在更长时间内保持高位的说法就会加强，这通常最终会给大宗商品带来一些压力。我只是在思考它还能跑多远。
It's interesting you're focusing on Kalshi for this. Do you think the direct CPI-to-oil correlation will hold strong enough there to be a reliable indicator, or are you also watching the traditional futures markets for confirmation?
It's always entertaining how the market dances to the tune of "inflation fears" and "rate hikes," almost as if it's surprised every time. Good call on watching oil, it's the financial world's most reliable drama queen.
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