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大家好，刚加入论坛。交易股票和期权大约十年了，最近几年更认真地研究期货和外汇。我最痛苦的教训之一是早期尝试在自认为只是既定上升趋势中的回调时“摊低成本”。那是一只生物科技股，$XYZ，我对它的长期故事很有信心。问题是，“回调”变成了日线图上明显的趋势突破，原因是一家竞争对手意外的临床试验成功。我最初的仓位是合适的，但我却不断加仓，坚信它“一定会反弹”。每一次加仓都使我的平均成本相对于新的、更低的价格发现更高。最终持有了数月的重大亏损，占用了本可以用于其他地方的资金。我本应该尊重新的市场信息并削减初始头寸，然后重新评估。在价格走势截然不同时，仍然坚持自己的叙述是一个代价高昂的错误。
Averaging down works until it doesn't. Biotech is a graveyard for that strategy if the underlying story breaks, which it sounds like happened here. Did you have a hard stop or were you just adding into the red?
That's a tough lesson to learn, and I've definitely made similar mistakes. It's so hard to tell the difference between a dip and a full-blown trend reversal when you're in the middle of it. What signals do you look for now to avoid that trap?
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