收益率息差与经济前景

The signal might not be as clear as it once was because of all the quantitative easing over the years. It's hard to tell what's a 'natural' market signal versus something influenced by years of intervention. Good point about the soft landing, though.

I'm with you on the 'less severe downturn' idea. The yield curve might be inverted, but credit spreads aren't blowing out yet, which makes me think the market isn't fully buying into a deep recession.