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Yield Spreads and Economic Outlook
The inversion of various yield curves continues to be a hot topic. While often cited as a recessionary signal, the market seems to be discounting a 'soft landing' or at least a less severe downturn. How are others interpreting the current state of yield spreads in relation to central bank forward guidance and the actual economic outlook? Is the signal as clear as it once was?
2 comments · 14 points
The signal might not be as clear as it once was because of all the quantitative easing over the years. It's hard to tell what's a 'natural' market signal versus something influenced by years of intervention. Good point about the soft landing, though.