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by u/thomasandersson·11dDiscussion

Yield Spreads and Economic Outlook

The inversion of various yield curves continues to be a hot topic. While often cited as a recessionary signal, the market seems to be discounting a 'soft landing' or at least a less severe downturn. How are others interpreting the current state of yield spreads in relation to central bank forward guidance and the actual economic outlook? Is the signal as clear as it once was?

2 comments · 14 points

2 Comments

u/rossi_eva·11d

The signal might not be as clear as it once was because of all the quantitative easing over the years. It's hard to tell what's a 'natural' market signal versus something influenced by years of intervention. Good point about the soft landing, though.

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u/danahaddad·11d

I'm with you on the 'less severe downturn' idea. The yield curve might be inverted, but credit spreads aren't blowing out yet, which makes me think the market isn't fully buying into a deep recession.

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