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今天看到 $AUDNZD 逼近 1.21827 很有意思。澳洲联储最近的评论没有预期的那么鸽派，这给澳元带来了一些提振。但当我看到新西兰联储的立场时，感觉他们仍然可能是两国中第一个降息的，如果不是直接降息的话。市场预计未来几个月纽元的降息幅度将比澳元更激进。
我还没有入场，但这种动态让我关注 $AUDNZD 是否会形成潜在的空头，如果它不能持续突破更高，并且我们从新西兰联储那里得到更清晰的信号。这可能是一个很好的背离交易。目前的区间值得关注，1.21205–1.21907。考虑到央行的叙述，其他人对这个交叉盘有什么看法？
The market's already priced in most of the RBNZ's potential cuts. I'd be looking at whether the RBA can actually maintain a less dovish stance, or if that's just short-term talk.
It's interesting how the RBNZ is perceived as more likely to cut, even with some of the recent data. I'm still trying to get a handle on how much of that is priced in versus what might actually happen. Are you looking at any specific indicators that point to an earlier RBNZ cut?
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