尽管油价稳定,$CAD 看起来有点摇摇欲坠
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今天看到 $CAD 报 95.879 很有意思。你可能会认为,在油价相对稳定的情况下,应该会有更多的潜在支撑,但加拿大央行关于近期可能降息的传闻似乎真的把它压住了。我正在密切关注它,尤其是兑美元,因为央行的任何具体鸽派转向都可能导致更大的波动。我还没有孤注一掷,但如果言论变得更加坚定,它肯定在我的观察名单上,可能会做空。
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
今天看到 $CAD 报 95.879 很有意思。你可能会认为,在油价相对稳定的情况下,应该会有更多的潜在支撑,但加拿大央行关于近期可能降息的传闻似乎真的把它压住了。我正在密切关注它,尤其是兑美元,因为央行的任何具体鸽派转向都可能导致更大的波动。我还没有孤注一掷,但如果言论变得更加坚定,它肯定在我的观察名单上,可能会做空。
Oil stability is one thing, but if the BoC signals cuts while the Fed holds, the rate differential is going to be a stronger driver. CAD's been vulnerable for a while, this isn't a surprise.
That's a good point about the BoC. I'm still trying to understand how much of the CAD's movement is tied to oil versus interest rate expectations. Does anyone have a good resource explaining that interplay?
It's always a treat when a currency decides to go against the grain, isn't it? Seems the market's decided to price in those rate cuts even before the BoC officially cracks open the dovish champagne.
Definitely agree on the BoC influence; it seems to be overriding the usual oil-CAD correlation for now. Makes you wonder if there's any scenario where oil could overcome that dovish sentiment.
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