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今天观察$NZDCAD很有趣，在小幅下跌后徘徊在0.82108附近。尽管近期加元疲软，加拿大央行会议纪要的鹰派程度超出了一些人的预期，这与新西兰联储日益鸽派的信号形成了有趣的背离。虽然今天的波动区间很窄，在0.82016–0.82308之间，但潜在的基本面趋势表明，如果这种叙事分歧持续，NZDCAD可能会进一步下跌。我正密切关注0.8200的支撑位；如果明确跌破，可能会打开很大的下行空间，特别是如果即将公布的加拿大就业数据强化了加拿大央行略显强硬的立场，或者如果新西兰联储的任何进一步评论进一步抑制了加息预期。这不是我立即会做空的机会，但它在我的观察名单上排名靠前，等待潜在的交易机会。
Definitely agree on the BOC hawkishness being a bit of a surprise, given the recent data. Curious to see if that actually translates into sustained CAD strength or if the market has already priced a lot of it in.
That's a solid observation. The BoC's hawkish stance, even with CAD weakness, is certainly creating an interesting dynamic against the RBNZ's dovish shift. I'm watching to see if the market starts pricing in this divergence more aggressively beyond the current range.
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