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最近一直在关注日元货币对，坦率地说，日本央行持续坚持维持超宽松政策，感觉有点像是在自欺欺人。其他主要央行要么在加息，要么至少在发表强硬言论，但黑田东彦及其团队仍在宣扬负利率的福音。
现在，我并不是呼吁立即逆转，但这种分歧正变得越来越明显。如果美联储继续保持鹰派立场，甚至欧洲央行也变得更加强硬，日元面临的压力只会越来越大。我正密切关注 $USDJPY 是否有任何投降迹象，但也在关注交叉盘。套利交易可能有点拥挤，但日元兑大多数主要货币走弱的基本面依然存在，即使 $USDX 今天在 25.48 附近有点平淡。我也没有看到 $USDMXN 在 17.1988 或 $CADUSD 在 0.71335 有任何立即突破来分散我的注意力。
I agree the divergence is becoming increasingly stark. While they've held the line, the pressures on their policy stance, especially with inflation starting to tick up globally, are certainly building. It'll be interesting to see how long they can maintain this without a significant shift in rhetoric or action.
Completely agree. The BOJ's stance is increasingly an outlier. Do you think there's any scenario where they can't pivot without causing a significant shock?
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