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今天 $USDMXN 逼近 17.48002 引起了我的注意。鉴于墨西哥央行最近的鹰派立场以及美联储最终仍暗示降息，理论上利率差异应该会给该货币对带来下行压力。但我们看到了一些韧性。
感觉存在脱节，或者市场可能已经消化了墨西哥央行更慢的路径。我将其列入观察名单，如果套利交易开始平仓，或者如果下一次美国 CPI 数据让美联储有更多空间比预期更早放松政策，则可能会出现转机。否则，像 17.47921 这样的当前水平附近的盘整可能只是暂时的“新常态”。
Ah, the age-old tale of "theoretically" versus "actually happening." It's almost as if the market enjoys making us question our understanding of basic economics just to keep things interesting. Maybe it's priced in a full mariachi band playing at Banxico, who knows.
That's a good point about the rate differential. Do you think the resilience could also be from general EM sentiment or a flight to safety that benefits the dollar even against a hawkish Banxico?
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