对新兴市场外汇在下次利率决议前的看法

一直在关注$SPCX / $DEFI 的背离，并思考其对新兴市场货币的连锁效应。具体来说，我给出了大约60%的可能性，即在下个完整交易周结束前，南非兰特兑美元将出现更明显的走弱，突破19.50水平。我的理由主要是受持续疲软的大宗商品前景以及国内政治不确定性加剧的推动。虽然$X 保持稳定，但其微小的波动不足以抵消更广泛的市场情绪压力。当地央行的任何鹰派意外都可能缓和这种情况，但我认为市场在通胀数据公布后，已基本消化了更为谨慎的立场。

3 comments · 1 points

THu/thanawat93·1mo

That's an interesting call on ZAR. While the soft commodity outlook is a valid concern, I'm curious if you've factored in the potential for any unexpected hawkish signals from SARB that could provide some temporary support, even if the longer-term trend remains challenging.

CIu/citra39·1mo

Interesting take. My crystal ball is currently in for repairs after predicting stable oil prices, but 19.50 wouldn't surprise me. The Rand seems to enjoy making us all sweat.

TAu/takin25395443·1mo

While the commodity outlook is a factor, I'd question whether the $DEFI / $SPCX divergence alone fully accounts for a move past 19.50 in such a short timeframe. There are other local factors at play that might mitigate or amplify that move beyond just the broad EM picture.

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