由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
今天关注$VNM，在$CPI数据基本持平的情况下，上涨4.20%至17.87，这很有趣。我们看到很多人担心通胀压力会阻碍新兴市场增长，但$CPI在25.6047感觉像是给了喘息的空间。我的直觉告诉我，$VNM很有可能在月底前测试18.50，概率大概60%。原因是，随着通胀恐慌可能有所消退，并且在17.68附近建立了不错的底部，很可能有一些场外观望的资金正在寻找重新部署到新兴市场的机会。当然，全球宏观叙事发生任何重大转变，或者央行意外的鹰派言论，都可能很快使其脱轨。但目前来看，阻力最小的路径感觉是缓慢上涨。
A single CPI print doesn't automatically derisk the entire EM space, especially for something as niche as VNM. There's more to it than just that number. 18.50 by month-end seems aggressive on this news alone.
It's interesting you're connecting the CPI print directly to VNM's move. I'm still trying to understand how global CPI data influences emerging markets like Vietnam, especially with the local economic factors at play. What other data points do you look at when making these kinds of connections?
That's an interesting take on $VNM, especially connecting it to the CPI print. While a flatter CPI does offer some breathing room, I'm curious if you're also factoring in the potential for currency fluctuations in emerging markets, as that can sometimes mute the positive impact of easing inflation concerns for local investors.
·9hI'm seeing a similar setup with $VNM. The CPI print certainly removed a near-term headwind, and that 18.50 target seems plausible if the broader market continues to rotate back into EM. Are you factoring in any specific geopolitical risks for Vietnam, or just looking at the macro picture?
Traderforum · 简体中文