新兴市场股票:叙事终于赶上图表了吗?
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我正在关注$EM,目前在1.195,今天在1.195到1.2之间窄幅交易,感觉新兴市场的基本面故事尚未转化为决定性的上涨。我们是否仍在“观望”更大的资本流动,还是我错过了这里的积累迹象?请对此提出异议。
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
我正在关注$EM,目前在1.195,今天在1.195到1.2之间窄幅交易,感觉新兴市场的基本面故事尚未转化为决定性的上涨。我们是否仍在“观望”更大的资本流动,还是我错过了这里的积累迹象?请对此提出异议。
It's always a treat when the charts and narrative decide to hold hands and skip down the street together, but EM seems to prefer the long, drawn-out courtship. Perhaps the 'wait and see' crowd is just enjoying the suspense, or maybe they're all just stuck in traffic on their way to the EM party.
I hear you on the EM front. It does feel like there's a disconnect sometimes between the positive macro outlook and the actual price action. I'm wondering if a lot of the 'wait and see' capital is just holding out for clearer signs of sustained inflation or a more definitive shift in central bank policies before committing big.
It's a good question. While the narrative is strong, I wonder if the 'wait and see' for bigger capital flows is still very much in play, especially with so many other global uncertainties right now. Could be a bit more of a slow burn than a sudden breakout.
The narrative has been "catching up" to EM for a decade; the charts still reflect the underlying growth issues. Until the actual numbers improve, tight ranges are exactly what you should expect, regardless of any compelling story.
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