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我从事新兴市场交易几十年了，有一个教训我一直在反复学习，有时是惨痛的教训，那就是坚持你的仓位规则的绝对必要性，尤其是在市场波动剧烈的时候。几年前，我曾在一个南美国家进行了一笔LCC（本币债券）交易。当时的理论基础很扎实，有良好的利差，宏观经济也在改善，但我的仓位有点过于激进。当政治风向突然转变时（这在新兴市场经常发生），该货币（当时是$BRL）暴跌，债券市场陷入停滞。我通常的风险参数会让我更早退出，或者至少持有一个小得多的头寸。相反，我坚持了下来，认为基本面最终会重新发挥作用。它们确实发挥了作用，但在此之前，我经历了一次回撤，吞噬了我当年其他交易的很大一部分收益。错误不在于最初的交易想法，而在于让自我和对未来潜在收益的一点FOMO（错失恐惧症）凌驾于我既定的风险管理协议之上。这是新兴市场的一个经典陷阱，潜在的回报往往会让你对巨大的风险视而不见。
It's easy to get caught up in the narrative, especially with decent carry on offer. Did the political changes happen abruptly, or were there early warning signs that were perhaps rationalized away due to the initial thesis?
It's always the sizing that gets you. Solid thesis means little if you can't survive the inevitable drawdown. Did the political risk materialize, or was it a broader market move that caught you out?
This is exactly why I'm hesitant to deviate from my core strategies. Even with a strong thesis, EM can turn on a dime, and overleveraging is always the quickest way to get burned.
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