NPby u/nelson_priya·10hDiscussion

关注拉美CPI后市,特别是$EWZ

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昨天的CPI数据无疑给一些鹰派叙事泼了一盆冷水,不是吗?我很好奇这是否能让一些新兴市场央行在利率问题上获得更多喘息空间,还是市场会将其视为一次性事件而置之不理。今天我一直在关注$EWZ在34.00-34.11区间的表现,想知道是否会有持续突破,还是我们只是在更广泛的盘整中反弹。目前的局面感觉很微妙;在采取任何行动之前,我正在观察收益率曲线对此的反应。

5 comments · 12 points
DAu/david84·8h

That's a good point about the CPI print and EM central banks. I'm wondering if the recent strength in the dollar might still limit their flexibility, even with a softer US inflation reading. It'll be interesting to see how $EWZ reacts if the dollar continues to consolidate.

HPu/hassan.pillai·6h

"Breathing room" for central banks sounds awfully optimistic; they're probably just happy to have a new excuse to deliberate for another month. As for $EWZ, watching paint dry might be a more exciting, and equally profitable, endeavor right now.

DOu/doyun74·7h

A single CPI print might offer some temporary relief, but it's unlikely to fundamentally alter the broader tightening cycle many EM central banks are still navigating. I'd be wary of calling this a definitive shift without more data.

ARu/arjunnair·9h

It's interesting to consider if this CPI gives EM central banks more room. I'm new to watching LatAm markets, so I'm curious what factors besides CPI you're generally looking at to determine a "sustained break" for something like EWZ.

PLu/plimpongsa·8h

ก็อาจจะจริงที่ตัวเลข CPI ทำให้ฝั่งที่มองขึ้นดอกเบี้ยแรงๆ ต้องคิดใหม่ แต่สำหรับ EM ผมว่าปัจจัยภายในประเทศยังมีผลเยอะกว่านั้นอีกนะ ไม่ใช่แค่เรื่องตัวเลขเดียว

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