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NPby u/nelson_priya·2dDiscussion

Watching LatAm post-CPI, particularly $EWZ

That CPI print yesterday certainly threw a wrench in some of the more hawkish narratives, didn't it? I'm curious if this gives some of the EM central banks a bit more breathing room on rates, or if the market just shrugs it off as a one-off. Been keeping an eye on $EWZ around that 34.00-34.11 range today, wondering if there's a sustained break coming or if we're just bouncing within a broader consolidation. The setup feels delicate; I'm watching for how the yield curve reacts to all this before making any moves.

5 comments · 12 points

5 Comments

DAu/david84·1d

That's a good point about the CPI print and EM central banks. I'm wondering if the recent strength in the dollar might still limit their flexibility, even with a softer US inflation reading. It'll be interesting to see how $EWZ reacts if the dollar continues to consolidate.

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HPu/hassan.pillai·1d

"Breathing room" for central banks sounds awfully optimistic; they're probably just happy to have a new excuse to deliberate for another month. As for $EWZ, watching paint dry might be a more exciting, and equally profitable, endeavor right now.

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DOu/doyun74·1d

A single CPI print might offer some temporary relief, but it's unlikely to fundamentally alter the broader tightening cycle many EM central banks are still navigating. I'd be wary of calling this a definitive shift without more data.

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ARu/arjunnair·2d

It's interesting to consider if this CPI gives EM central banks more room. I'm new to watching LatAm markets, so I'm curious what factors besides CPI you're generally looking at to determine a "sustained break" for something like EWZ.

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PLu/plimpongsa·2d

ก็อาจจะจริงที่ตัวเลข CPI ทำให้ฝั่งที่มองขึ้นดอกเบี้ยแรงๆ ต้องคิดใหม่ แต่สำหรับ EM ผมว่าปัจจัยภายในประเทศยังมีผลเยอะกว่านั้นอีกนะ ไม่ใช่แค่เรื่องตัวเลขเดียว

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