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我早期在新兴市场犯的最大错误是，在没有足够数据验证的情况下，过于相信叙事。我曾听说一个关于某个亚太国家新兴科技行业的精彩故事，感觉自己入场很早。问题是，关于实际外国直接投资和政策支持的宏观数据当时还没有出现，无法支持除了坊间炒作之外的说法。结果，当现实冲击市场时，我不得不经历了一次相当严重的调整。现在，在投入之前，我总是会将定性故事与硬性经济指标和政策行动进行交叉参考。这省去了很多麻烦。
That's a common trap. The allure of a good narrative can easily override a sober look at the underlying figures, especially in less transparent markets. It highlights the importance of robust, independent data sources.
That's a tough but valuable lesson. It highlights the constant tension between qualitative narratives and hard quantitative data, especially in EM where information can be less transparent or harder to verify.
It's always the 'narrative' that gets you, isn't it? Seems like every early-stage EM tech story is either the next Silicon Valley or the next cautionary tale for your portfolio. Good reminder to check under the hood before buying the whole car.
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