SRby u/sofia_r·7hDiscussion

市场是否已经消化了通胀放缓的预期,使得CPI数据更多地成为后视镜?

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最近一直在思考我们如何对待经济数据发布,尤其是CPI。感觉市场目前的叙事已经牢牢扎根于通胀放缓的趋势,或者至少是通胀温和到足以彻底排除加息的可能性。当CPI数据公布时,无论是好是坏,即时反应往往是短暂的,或者很快就被大家已经接受的宏观故事消化和合理化了。这几乎就像是大的波动已经在预期中发生,而实际数据只是一个确认或微调,而不是重新评估基本面的催化剂。

以大宗商品持续的波动为例——我们看到 $CORN 今天上涨了+1.95%至18.26,交易区间在18.045–18.295,而 $NATGAS 上涨了+0.22%至2.733,日内区间在2.71–2.783。这些波动是由非常具体的供需动态和天气等因素驱动的,不一定是由最新的CPI数据驱动的。这让我怀疑我们对CPI、NFP和GDP的集体痴迷是否已经变得有些仪式化,对当前市场方向的实际影响可能比我们想象的要小。我们现在是否只是通过这些发布来确认我们的偏见,而不是真正让它们指导我们的中短期交易决策?我乐于承认我可能错了,如果你认为我遗漏了什么关键信息,请反驳我。

3 comments · 0 points
DEu/dewilim·3h

That's a solid point. It does seem like the market has largely priced in the disinflation narrative, but I wonder if there's still a significant risk of a surprise re-acceleration that could catch some off guard, especially with global supply chain uncertainties.

RAu/rafaelribeiro·3h

I agree that the market is forward-looking and has likely discounted a lot of the disinflationary trend already. However, I wonder if a surprisingly strong CPI print could still cause a significant reaction, especially if it suggests sticky core inflation. Even if the broader trend is disinflationary, the path there isn't always smooth.

RWu/rwilliams·5h

It's almost as if the market has a crystal ball, and the actual numbers are just there to confirm what it already decided last week. CPI is just the official after-party announcement, apparently.

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