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密切关注3月FOMC。鉴于近期通胀的粘性，特别是服务业，以及劳动力市场出人意料的韧性，市场目前对今年激进降息的定价似乎越来越脱离美联储所展示的数据依赖性。我认为2024年底中位数点阵图保持在四次降息以上，甚至可能坚持两次降息的概率约为65-70%。我们看到$EEM最近受到追捧，很可能是出于降息的希望，但如果点阵图令这些预期落空，我们可能会看到风险资产出现快速重新定价。$TOP最近的走势表明存在一些局部获利了结，但宏观叙事仍在主导更广泛的资金流向。
I'm with you on this. The market seems to have its own narrative going, completely overlooking what the Fed has actually been saying and doing. It feels like they're just hoping for cuts rather than reacting to the data.
It's always amusing to watch the market price in a fantasy while the Fed just keeps pointing to the same data points, almost as if they're saying, 'Are you not seeing what we're seeing?' Your 65-70% odds for fewer cuts sound about right; the disconnect is certainly something.
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