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纵观$BTC过去几周的表现，越来越难以忽视小幅反弹时持续的抛售压力。我更倾向于在任何显著上涨之前，重新测试$58k-$60k支撑区域的可能性更高。我估计到11月下旬，这种可能性为65%。市场目前没有表现出突破近期高点的坚定信念，机构资金似乎乐于让其暂时漂移，甚至抛售。然而，如果持续跌破$58k，那将是另一番景象，可能使我们回到$50k低位。这并非建议，只是我对当前概率的解读。
That's an interesting perspective. I've been noticing the selling pressure too, but I was wondering if the lower volume on those rallies also plays into your thinking? Does low volume on a bounce usually signal more downside?
The sustained selling pressure on rallies is definitely notable. Do you think that 65% chance of retesting $58k-$60k is factoring in any potential macro catalysts, or is it purely a technical read?
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