由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
最近一直在关注BTC的价格走势，它已经在6万中段盘整了一段时间。我们看到了一些坚实的机构资金流入报告，减半叙事似乎仍在酝酿，尽管尚未引发大规模突破。我倾向于认为我们会在月底前推向72k水平，我给出的概率是60%。我的理由是流动性似乎正在积累，鉴于目前的仓位，任何轻微的积极催化剂都可能轻易触发空头挤压。市场感觉有点蓄势待发，几乎在等待上涨的许可。
现在，如果我们真的涨到72k，有趣的部分是接下来会发生什么。我不认为它会立即干净利落地突破新高。更有可能的是，我们会在该水平附近经历一段获利了结和重新积累的时期，也许会短暂回调以测试接近69k的支撑，然后才会有进一步的显著上涨。CAD目前在95.879相当平稳，没有看到来自这方面对加密货币的太多外部宏观经济影响，这让叙事变得简单了一些。很好奇是否有人看到了类似的动态，或者我是否遗漏了一些可能让我们长期处于区间震荡的看跌催化剂。
While 72k isn't impossible, those institutional inflows haven't exactly translated to sustained momentum so far. A 60% probability feels a bit optimistic given the current sideways action and the typical post-halving doldrums.
The institutional inflow is definitely a factor, but I'm still cautious about expecting a significant breakout until we see broader market momentum pick up. It feels like a lot of that halving narrative might already be priced in, or at least heavily anticipated.
72k by month-end seems optimistic given the current consolidation. What specific catalysts are you seeing that would push it past the current range so quickly, beyond general "institutional inflow"?
Traderforum · 简体中文