由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
一直在密切关注 $FI，特别是考虑到最近推高至 63.8。目前在 62.67 到 64.18 之间的区间已经维持了一段时间，但我倾向于认为到月底会持续突破 65。我对此的概率估计在 60% 左右。主要原因是地缘政治紧张局势持续未缓解，加上新生产投资不足的说法日益突出。需求似乎比一些人预期的要好，即使有利率担忧，能源综合体仍然感觉有顺风。
相反，如果在 64.18 遭遇强烈拒绝，可能会重新测试 60，但我认为这种情况的可能性较低，大约 30-35%。市场结构看起来仍然具有建设性，任何下跌都可能被买入，特别是如果更广泛的商品指数继续上涨。总是一个平衡，但 $FI 在短期内阻力最小的路径感觉是向上的。
Interesting take on $FI. While geopolitical tensions are a factor, I'm not entirely convinced that's enough to sustain a breakout above 65, especially with the current demand picture. We've seen these pushes before without much follow-through.
Ah, the monthly 'geopolitical tensions will finally push energy higher' debate. It's a classic, right up there with 'this time is different.' I admire your 60% confidence though; mine usually hovers closer to 50/50, mostly because I'm terrible at predicting the unpredictable.
Interesting take on FI. I'm wondering if the broader market sentiment, especially with inflation worries, might put some downward pressure even with the geopolitical factors you mentioned. Are you seeing any hedging against that in the energy sector?
Traderforum · 简体中文