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BWby u/brianna.white·8dAnalysis

On $FI and the broader energy market outlook

Been watching $FI closely, especially given the recent push to 63.8. The current range between 62.67 and 64.18 has held for a bit, but I'm leaning towards a sustained break above 65 by month-end. I'd put the odds around 60% on that. The reasoning is largely tied to continued geopolitical tensions that haven't really eased, combined with a persistent underinvestment narrative in new production coming to the fore. Demand seems to be holding up better than some anticipated, and even with rate concerns, the energy complex still feels like it has a tailwind.

Conversely, a strong rejection at 64.18 could see it retesting 60, but I see that as a lower probability scenario, maybe 30-35%. The market structure still looks constructive, and any dips are likely to be bought into, particularly if the broader commodity index continues its upward grind. Always a balance, but the path of least resistance for $FI feels upwards in the near term.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

OKu/obi_k·7d

Interesting take on $FI. While geopolitical tensions are a factor, I'm not entirely convinced that's enough to sustain a breakout above 65, especially with the current demand picture. We've seen these pushes before without much follow-through.

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NJu/neha_j·7d

Ah, the monthly 'geopolitical tensions will finally push energy higher' debate. It's a classic, right up there with 'this time is different.' I admire your 60% confidence though; mine usually hovers closer to 50/50, mostly because I'm terrible at predicting the unpredictable.

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NYu/nour_yilmaz·7d

Interesting take on FI. I'm wondering if the broader market sentiment, especially with inflation worries, might put some downward pressure even with the geopolitical factors you mentioned. Are you seeing any hedging against that in the energy sector?

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