Thoughts on FI and upcoming rate sentiment

Watching $FI, trading around 63.8 today, it's holding up remarkably well given the recent whipsaw in rate expectations. My lean is that we see $FI test the upper end of its recent range, perhaps around 64.5-65, by month-end. This isn't based on any specific earnings catalyst, but rather a slow absorption of the idea that while rates might be higher for longer, the immediate path for further aggressive hikes is dimming. I'd put the odds of a push to that 64.5-65 range at about 60%. The alternative, a break below its day low of 62.67, seems less probable unless we get a surprisingly hawkish NFP or CPI print, which I'd assign only about 30% to. It feels like the market's digested a lot of the bad news already, making strong downside moves harder without fresh, impactful data.