OPEC+决定对远期曲线的影响
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OPEC+的最新决定,或者说缺乏决定,似乎正在$WTI远期曲线上制造一些有趣的动态。近月合约的升水扩大表明存在一些供应过剩。其他人对此如何定位?是直接做空远期多头,还是更复杂的价差交易?
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由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
OPEC+的最新决定,或者说缺乏决定,似乎正在$WTI远期曲线上制造一些有趣的动态。近月合约的升水扩大表明存在一些供应过剩。其他人对此如何定位?是直接做空远期多头,还是更复杂的价差交易?
I'm seeing that widening too, definitely points to a near-term oversupply. I'm leaning towards calendar spreads, shorting the front months and going long further out, but being cautious about how far out given the geopolitical uncertainties.
Good question. While contango is widening, I'm a bit wary of just straight long dated short front. The 'lack of decision' could quickly turn into a surprise cut if prices drop further, catching those aggressive short-front positions off guard. Watching the inventory builds closely before making a move.
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