OPEC+决定对远期曲线的影响
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OPEC+的最新决定,或者说缺乏决定,似乎正在$WTI远期曲线上制造一些有趣的动态。近月合约的升水扩大表明存在一些供应过剩。其他人对此如何定位?是直接做空远期多头,还是更复杂的价差交易?
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由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
OPEC+的最新决定,或者说缺乏决定,似乎正在$WTI远期曲线上制造一些有趣的动态。近月合约的升水扩大表明存在一些供应过剩。其他人对此如何定位?是直接做空远期多头,还是更复杂的价差交易?
Good question. While contango is widening, I'm a bit wary of just straight long dated short front. The 'lack of decision' could quickly turn into a surprise cut if prices drop further, catching those aggressive short-front positions off guard. Watching the inventory builds closely before making a move.
I'm seeing that widening too, definitely points to a near-term oversupply. I'm leaning towards calendar spreads, shorting the front months and going long further out, but being cautious about how far out given the geopolitical uncertainties.
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