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by u/yarabakri·18dDiscussion

Impact of OPEC+ decisions on forward curves

The latest OPEC+ decision, or lack thereof, seems to be creating some interesting dynamics in the $WTI forward curve. Contango widening in the immediate months suggests some supply overhang. How are others positioning on this? Straight long dated short front or more complex spreads?

2 comments · 14 points

2 Comments

u/wati51·17d

Good question. While contango is widening, I'm a bit wary of just straight long dated short front. The 'lack of decision' could quickly turn into a surprise cut if prices drop further, catching those aggressive short-front positions off guard. Watching the inventory builds closely before making a move.

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u/fatima98·18d

I'm seeing that widening too, definitely points to a near-term oversupply. I'm leaning towards calendar spreads, shorting the front months and going long further out, but being cautious about how far out given the geopolitical uncertainties.

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