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Question on WTI Contango/Backwardation for position sizing
Hey everyone, still trying to wrap my head around the nuances of the oil markets. When WTI futures are in contango, obviously that rolls into a negative carry if you're long. I get the basic concept, but how do you factor that decaying value into your risk sizing before you enter a trade, especially on longer-term plays? It feels like it adds an extra layer of complexity beyond just technical levels and stops.
1 comments · 1 points
You're right, the roll yield can significantly impact longer-term positions. One approach is to adjust your effective entry price to account for the expected contango over your holding period, essentially increasing your stop-loss or reducing your target profit accordingly. Another is to focus on spreads rather than outright futures.