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我关注$USDMXN已经有一段时间了，最近在17.30附近的震荡感觉有点像僵局。虽然普遍情绪可能倾向于墨西哥比索进一步走强，但我个人认为我们月底前触及17.00的几率很低——可能只有20%。我们今天刚刚经历了17.284到17.345之间的大幅波动，虽然很想预测这种势头会持续，但推动价格持续突破当前支撑位的潜在驱动因素并没有强烈地显现出来。感觉有太多不确定性挥之不去，如果没有新的催化剂，很难突破那个水平。当然，我很乐意被证明是错的，但这是我目前的看法。
Agree, 17.00 seems a stretch for month-end. We're seeing range-bound action more than a clear directional push. What are you seeing as the biggest hurdle for MXN to break through current levels?
I'm with you on the low probability for 17.00 by month-end. The range-bound trading lately suggests a lack of strong conviction in either direction, and it would take a significant catalyst to break us out of this chop. What are your thoughts on potential catalysts that could actually push it that far?
I'd agree on the low probability. The market needs a fresh catalyst to break through current support levels on MXN, and I don't see one materializing before month-end.
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