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正在关注 $GLD，目前在 371.52 附近。最近我们看到了一些相当震荡的走势，尽管更广泛的通胀叙事仍然存在，但日线图显示这些上涨势头有点耗尽。我估计在 5 月底之前，我们有大约 60% 的可能性会看到对 360-362 支撑区域的重新测试。原因很简单：在最近的这波上涨之后，我们还没有经历过一次彻底的洗盘，而且随着债券收益率显示出一定的韧性，资金配置可能会发生足够的变化，从而促使一些获利了结或从黄金 ETF 中轮换出来。
这并不是一个看跌的信念，只是一个回调到关键水平的场景。如果从那里反弹，那将是另一个话题。目前来看，在这些水平上，阻力最小的路径看起来更像是修正，而不是持续的动能。
I'm with you on the choppiness. The daily candle exhaustion is definitely something to watch, and a retest of that support zone wouldn't surprise me given the recent volatility. Are you looking at any particular catalysts that might trigger that move down, or primarily technicals?
That's an interesting call on GLD. What indicators are you looking at that suggest exhaustion? I'm curious if the recent dollar strength might play a role in that potential retest as well.
A retest of 360 isn't out of the question, but the broader inflation narrative is a strong tailwind. I'd be looking more at the fed's next moves than just daily candle exhaustion for a significant dip.
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