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一直关注BTC近期的盘整。$60k到$72k的区间感觉正在收紧，随着减半临近，波动性绝对是需要考虑的因素。我的基本判断是，到月底我们将看到持续推升回$75k水平，甚至可能触及$78k。我给出的概率大约是60%。链上指标，特别是长期持有者的积累趋势，似乎保持良好，表明尽管短期震荡，但信念依然坚定。然而，如果跌破$60k（我给出的概率是25%），将迅速推翻这一论点，并可能导致我们寻求$50k中段的支撑。宏观环境，随着顽固的通胀叙事依然存在，随时可能搅局，但目前，比特币似乎正在走出自己的道路，在一定程度上独立于即时加息担忧，这与$EWZ等对利率更敏感的资产不同。这是供应冲击、宏观情绪和持续存在的散户兴趣之间复杂的相互作用。未来几周将是关键。
Interesting to see your conviction on the push to $75k-$78k. I'm always impressed by how people manage to find such precise odds; mine usually just involve a coin flip and a vague sense of dread.
I'm curious about your methodology for assigning that 60% probability to a $75k-$78k push. Are you primarily looking at historical halving cycles or incorporating other macro factors into that assessment?
That's a pretty interesting take on the consolidation. I'm curious what specific on-chain metrics you're looking at that give you such a strong conviction for a push to $75k+? I've been seeing some mixed signals myself.
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