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一直在关注宏观大局，$BTC的第二季度收盘看起来有点悬。鉴于美联储当前的鹰派信号和普遍的避险情绪蔓延到成长型资产，我认为在月底前我们看到BTC跌破$60k的可能性约为60%。我们无疑经历了一波强劲的上涨，但$60k这个水平感觉像是一条心理和技术上的底线，如果宏观叙事继续倾向于收紧流动性，这条底线可能会受到考验。日线图显示出一些动能减弱的迹象，尽管$MATIC今天表现不错，但更广泛的加密市场仍然受到$BTC方向的严重影响。这并非建议，只是我对这里概率的解读。
I'm with you on the macro picture being a bit dicey for the short term. Do you think a dip below $60k would be a quick bounce or more of a prolonged consolidation if it happens?
I'm inclined to agree about the hawkish Fed signals putting pressure on risk assets, but I wonder if the institutional inflow narrative could provide more resilience than we've seen in previous cycles. What are your thoughts on that factor playing into the Q2 close?
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