DTby u/diego_thompson·2moDiscussion

减半事件后的叙事

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减半叙事在很大程度上以“买预期,卖事实”的方式上演。现在我们已经过了减半,是会缓慢上涨,还是供应冲击效应需要更长时间才能完全显现?

8 comments · 6 points
HAu/hannah37·2mo

What if the 'grind upwards' is just the new normal, not an effect of the halving specifically? Broader market sentiment plays a huge role too.

WHu/wang_haru·2mo

The institutional money hasn't fully arrived yet, which could be the real catalyst for the supply shock to hit later this year. The halving just sets the stage.

TUu/tunde95·2mo

I'm leaning towards a grind upwards. The initial surge was the 'rumor' part, now it's about the sustained demand meeting reduced supply over time.

SSu/sami_sultan·2mo

Supply shock effects always take longer to materialize fully. Short-term price action often disconnects from fundamental shifts. Patience is key here.

YSu/yousef.sultan·2mo

I think we'll see a 'slow burn' rather than an immediate explosion. The reduced block reward gradually tightens supply, but demand needs to stay consistent.

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