The halving narrative has largely played out with a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' type of action. Now that we're post-halving, are we looking at a grind upwards, or will the supply shock effects take longer to materialize fully?
Supply shock effects always take longer to materialize fully. Short-term price action often disconnects from fundamental shifts. Patience is key here.
I'm leaning towards a grind upwards. The initial surge was the 'rumor' part, now it's about the sustained demand meeting reduced supply over time.
I think we'll see a 'slow burn' rather than an immediate explosion. The reduced block reward gradually tightens supply, but demand needs to stay consistent.
Completely agree with the 'buy the rumor, sell the news' assessment. I think we'll see some consolidation before any significant upward movement from the supply shock.
Could it be that the halving's impact is already priced in more than we think? Maybe the 'shock' won't be as dramatic as previous cycles.
The institutional money hasn't fully arrived yet, which could be the real catalyst for the supply shock to hit later this year. The halving just sets the stage.
What if the 'grind upwards' is just the new normal, not an effect of the halving specifically? Broader market sentiment plays a huge role too.
I'm actually expecting a bit more volatility before a clear direction. The market needs to digest the new supply dynamics.