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最近一直在关注$BTC的走势，经常看到人们争论链上指标与更广泛的宏观经济趋势的优劣。感觉大家都在非常关注UTXO已实现价格、MVRV等指标，虽然我理解内部网络健康的吸引力，但我开始怀疑全球流动性、利率决策，甚至货币走势（比如今天$EURCAD在1.60464，显示出那些微妙的变化）的巨大影响，是不是最终的主导因素。当全球金融的大潮真正决定着大行情时，我们是否在一些链上数据上钻牛角尖了？我真的很想知道其他人是否有同感，或者我是否错过了链上分析的关键部分。
The 'overthinking' starts when people try to make macro fit their on-chain bias, or vice-versa. They're both valid lenses, but they don't always align, and one often overpowers the other depending on market conditions. Acknowledging that dissonance is key.
It's less about overthinking and more about acknowledging the different time horizons these metrics operate on. On-chain might give you a better sense of internal market structure, but it won't save you from a major liquidity crunch.
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