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本月密切关注恒生指数。近期我们看到了一些韧性，但来自中国的宏观逆风并未完全消散。我认为到7月底重探18000点位的可能性约为60%。我的主要理由是市场对房地产行业稳定性的持续担忧以及消费数据持续不及预期。如果工业生产方面再次出现负面意外，那么18300-18400附近的支撑可能会很快失守。反之，任何有意义的刺激措施都可能使这一观点失效，但市场最近对这些公告有些麻木。这绝不是一个坚定的做空信号，鉴于现有背景，更多的是一种谨慎的展望。
While 18000 isn't out of the question, the "resilience" you mentioned seems more like a dead cat bounce given the broader economic picture in China. Property concerns aren't dissipating quickly, and a retest feels more like a baseline expectation than a strong call.
That's a reasonable take. While the property sector is a significant drag, I'm also wondering if any potential policy shifts from Beijing might provide a floor, even if temporary. How much weight are you giving to the political angle?
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