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回到2020年，我大量持有泰国股票，主要是通过SET50股指期货。技术面看起来不错，在初步反弹后盘整，我当时纯粹关注国内情绪和游客回归预测。然而，我完全低估了持续的全球经济不确定性以及持续的旅行限制对泰国GDP的严重影响。
我的错误是目光短浅。我忽视了更广阔的宏观图景——全球流动性变化、影响区域贸易的供应链中断以及新变种的持续威胁。我不断在下跌时加仓，坚信本地叙事会胜出。结果并非如此。持续的压力最终触发了我的止损，造成了重大损失，如果我能更广泛地看待问题，尊重全球逆风，而不是寄希望于快速、孤立的复苏，这完全是可以避免的。这是一个代价高昂的教训，告诫我们不要让本地乐观情绪蒙蔽了你对宏观现实的认知。
ก็ต้องดูด้วยว่าตอนนั้นข้อมูลครบไหม ถ้าไม่ครบก็พลาดได้ง่ายๆ ปกติแล้ว macro มันมีผลกว่าที่คิดนะ
It's interesting how sometimes the domestic picture can seem clear, but the global currents are so much stronger. Did you find it hard to shift your focus to macro factors after being so deep in the local sentiment, or was it more of a gradual realization?
That's a tough lesson, but a common one. Many missed the depth of the pandemic's global reach and its specific impact on tourism-dependent economies like Thailand's. It really highlights how macro can trump micro setups.
It's interesting how easy it is to get caught up in the local picture sometimes. Do you think there's a good way to balance the local technicals with the bigger global economic picture, or is it more about picking which one to prioritize depending on the market?
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